There is a lot of uncertainty for Ireland at the start of 2017, not alone in relation to domestic issues but also external events, especially Brexit, elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany and possibly other countries, as well as the new administration in Washington. The current Fine Gael led government in Ireland is in power with the support of nine independents and a special three - year agreement with Fianna Fail. While ‘the new politics’ had difficult days in 2016, there are many challenging issues on the agenda for 2017 like public sector pay and pensions, water charges, public services, housing, homelessness, and compliance with fiscal targets.
The big external challenge is going to come from the referendum decision of the United Kingdom (UK) on 23 June 2016 to leave the European Union (EU). Before the 2015 general election the then British Prime Minister, David Cameron, promised an in-out referendum on membership of the EU before the end of 2017 to end bitter disagreement on the subject once and for all in the Conservative Party. The Conservatives won the election and the promise was kept, but Cameron misjudged the electorate. The decision to leave sent shock waves around the EU and around the world. It also caused political turmoil in the UK with remain majorities in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the greater London area The big issue emerging already is that no one is really sure, despite the rhetoric, what Brexit really means. The UK is expected to give notice under article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of its intention to withdraw from the European Union by the end of March 2017. The initial intention is to introduce a bill to repeal the European Communities Act 1972 and to adopt all existing EU laws into UK domestic law. The process is supposed to be completed in two years, but many are now saying this timeframe is far too ambitious. There are many contentious issues to be agreed with all 27 member states of the EU, such as trade terms, immigration, security, custom regulations and numerous others. It appears that special transitional arrangements are required. The UK cabinet and public are very divided on their choices. It is difficult to see the UK opting for complete withdrawal and negotiating bilateral terms like the Swiss with the EU. If the UK opts out fully, tariffs and barriers to trade with the EU are inevitable. If the UK joins the EEA, the European Economic Area with Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, it can get access to the Single Market, but it will have to make a financial contribution to the EU and accept four freedoms: free movement of goods, services, people and capital. However, some flexibility with regard to free movement may be possible in special circumstances. However, this option is anathema to many supporters of Brexit.
The terms negotiated with the UK will have huge implications for Ireland. As the only country with a land border with the UK, it wants a situation as close to the Single Market as possible. It also has a Common Travel Area with the UK since 1923, with no passport controls. There is now a danger of a new hard border, which no one on the island of Ireland wants. After the Good Friday agreement of 1998, the EU became a generous supporter of the peace process in Northern Ireland, which is in everyone’s interest to maintain. Ireland and the UK are big trading partners and neither country would want that damaged. Ireland is very dependent on the UK for exports of agricultural produce and drink. If there is a hard exit, it is likely that there will be customs barriers along the border with Northern Ireland. There is also the danger of passport controls as the UK has to ensure that there is no back door for entry through Northern Ireland.
The 2017 elections in Europe will be carefully watched. Big gains for the hard right could cause trouble for the euro and put further pressure on the European project. It is already damaged by the UK decision and it does not appear to have a clear vision for its future. The policies of Donald Trump in the USA, especially in relation to corporate taxes, can also create uncertainty in Ireland. There is a lot of uncertainty on the horizon, which will make 2017 a most interesting year. However, at the start of 2016, most people had definite views about the main issues for the year ahead. In Ireland, most commentators believed that the outgoing coalition government of Fine Gael and Labour would win the general election by ‘keeping the recovery going’ (but they lost 56 seats), that the UK would not vote to leave the EU, and that the candidacy of Donald Trump in the USA was a joke and that he had no chance of even receiving the Republican Party nomination!
Bernard O'Hara's latest book entitled Killasser: Heritage of a Mayo Parish is now on sale in the USA and UK as a paperback book at amazon.com, amazon.co.uk or Barnes and Noble
It is also available as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).
An earlier publication, a concise biography of Michael Davitt, entitled Davitt by Bernard O’Hara published in 2006 by Mayo County Council , is now available as Davitt: Irish Patriot and Father of the Land League by Bernard O’Hara, which was published in the USA by Tudor Gate Press (www.tudorgatepress.com) and is available from amazon.com and amazon.co.uk. It can be obtained as an eBook from the Apple iBookstore (for reading on iPad and iPhone), from Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (Kindle & Kindle Fire) and from Barnesandnoble.com (Nook tablet and eReader).